A map of New York's 24th Congressional District, represented by Rep. Claudia Tenney, illustrates the vast district stretching from Jefferson County along the Lake Ontario shoreline through Central and Western New York. The district will be the focus of the 2026 general election between incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney and Democratic challenger Alissa Ellman.
-Watertown NY By Hans Wilder
Much of the political oxygen in Northern New York has been consumed by the race in New York’s 21st Congressional District. With a spirited Republican primary now behind us and the general election beginning to take shape, it’s understandable why so many eyes are fixed on that contest.
But just to our west, another congressional race deserves far more attention than it’s receiving.
New York’s 24th Congressional District, represented by incumbent Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, stretches from Jefferson County along the Lake Ontario shoreline through Oswego and into the Finger Lakes and western New York. It is one of the state’s largest congressional districts geographically, encompassing military communities, manufacturing towns, family farms, and small cities that often share many of the same concerns as voters here in the North Country.
Democrats have nominated Army veteran and former Department of Veterans Affairs employee Alissa Ellman to challenge Tenney this November. Ellman brings a compelling personal story and has built her campaign around affordability, veterans’ issues, health care, and rural investment. Those are subjects that resonate with many voters regardless of party affiliation.
The challenge for Ellman isn’t necessarily her message. It’s the district itself.
NY-24 has become one of the most reliably Republican congressional districts in New York. Claudia Tenney enters the race with the advantages every incumbent hopes to have: high name recognition, established fundraising, and a constituency that has consistently supported conservative candidates in recent election cycles. The district has backed Donald Trump comfortably and has developed a voting pattern that favors Republicans at nearly every level of federal elections.
That doesn’t mean campaigns don’t matter. They always do. Unexpected national events, economic conditions, turnout, and candidate performance can reshape even races that appear settled months in advance. Ellman will undoubtedly work to persuade independent voters and moderate Republicans that her military service and focus on everyday economic concerns offer a compelling alternative.
Still, based on the district’s recent history and current political makeup, Watertown Post believes Claudia Tenney enters the fall campaign as the clear favorite. Our assessment today is that she has roughly a 75 to 85 percent chance of winning reelection. That leaves room for surprises—politics has a habit of producing them—but it also reflects the reality of the numbers and the district’s voting history.
As campaign season intensifies, NY-21 will continue to generate its share of headlines, and deservedly so. But voters should also keep a close eye on NY-24. The outcome may appear more predictable, yet it will help shape the balance of power in Congress just the same.
Sometimes the races receiving the least attention tell us the most about where the political winds are truly blowing.
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