Prediction market data places Anthony Constantino far ahead of Robert Smullen in the race for the NY-21 Republican nomination, signaling strong early momentum.
Kalshi Market Signals Anthony Constantino as Strong Frontrunner in NY-21 Republican Primary
West Palm Beach, FL., May 5 — A newly opened prediction market from Kalshi is pointing to a clear early favorite in the race for the Republican nomination in New York’s 21st Congressional District, highlighting a growing sense of momentum behind businessman Anthony Constantino.
As trading began, participants placed Constantino’s chances of securing the nomination at 82 percent, compared with 24 percent for his opponent, Robert Smullen. The market reflects the views of traders willing to back their expectations with real capital, offering a snapshot of confidence surrounding the race ahead of the June 23, 2026 primary.
Constantino, chief executive of Sticker Mule, has positioned his campaign around economic growth, job creation, and a message centered on strengthening communities across upstate New York. His platform emphasizes border security, tax relief, reduced government spending, and policies aimed at putting more money back into the hands of residents.
“This reflects a belief that our region is ready for results-driven leadership,” Constantino said, pointing to strong grassroots energy and his decision to self-fund as signs of independence and commitment.
His campaign received a notable boost in April with an endorsement from Donald Trump, a development that further elevated his profile in the district and intensified attention on the race.
For many across Northern New York, the contest is unfolding against the backdrop of broader regional change — a renewed focus on economic opportunity, local industry, and a sense that the North Country is entering a period of growth and renewed relevance.
Constantino’s background as a business leader, coupled with increasing visibility in the district, has made him a central figure in a race that is drawing early interest both locally and beyond.
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